{"id":"q11aa8c6c7628ef0d196e","batch_id":"batch-000067","seq":92,"speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-05T17:07:23.818Z","text":"法官禁止“合理推断中共胁迫”的裁量（Reasonable Inference 被封死）\n\n不是你说的“政治”，而是一个标准的证据法问题：\n    •    已有：\n    •    Mr. He 亲证胁迫\n    •    专家证人证明模式（猎狐行动）\n    •    辩方请求：\n    •    允许陪审团作合理推断\n    •    法官：\n    •    用 “speculation” 一刀封死\n\n📌 二巡会关心的点：\n    •    法官是否把 Rule 401/403 用成了 preclusion\n    •    是否实质性剥夺了被告的 theory of defense\n\n📉 风险：\n    •    上诉法院对 evidentiary rulings 给高度 deference\n    •    但**“very hard no”+结案陈词阶段**，是危险组合\n\n👉 这是 A-/B+ 边缘，但比大多数“政治叙事”强得多。","text_en":null,"edited":false,"reply_to":null,"reply_status":"none","has_attachment":false,"url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q11aa8c6c7628ef0d196e","reply_url":null,"reply_label":"","batch_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000067","batch_canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000067","notice":"围绕郭文贵案的社区讨论与观点交锋。发言仅代表讨论者观点，不等同于法院认定。","content_type":"discussion_message","canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q11aa8c6c7628ef0d196e","markdown_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q11aa8c6c7628ef0d196e/markdown","json_url":"https://mubeitech.com/api/discussion-messages/q11aa8c6c7628ef0d196e","surrounding_messages":[{"id":"q3115b443127d67fe0fee","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-05T17:00:57.566Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q3115b443127d67fe0fee"},{"id":"q836300c7d4e120acd891","speaker":"ntp***","date":"2026-01-05T17:05:50.671Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q836300c7d4e120acd891"},{"id":"q7bc63cf4d100400bac4e","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-05T17:06:37.517Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q7bc63cf4d100400bac4e"},{"id":"qd8954988491222294aeb","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-05T17:07:54.359Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qd8954988491222294aeb"},{"id":"q233a30d53cdd4515ad63","speaker":"kir***","date":"2026-01-05T17:08:23.889Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q233a30d53cdd4515ad63"},{"id":"qf8bb1b5f7d736de1e44c","speaker":"kir***","date":"2026-01-05T17:08:30.750Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qf8bb1b5f7d736de1e44c"}],"parent_message":null}