{"id":"q245eb077291587d2daf2","batch_id":"batch-000068","seq":502,"speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-10T04:00:48.152Z","text":"关键战略结论（你会关心的）\n\n一句话：\n\n785 = DOJ 提供你们三个人进二巡+最高法院的合法台阶\n\n而且很好的一点：\n\nDOJ 在785里完全没有提“诈骗罪成立”或者“受害人确认”\n\n这说明 DOJ 现在意识到：\n\n✔ 案子本体有巨大上诉风险\n✔ 刑事定罪可能无法守住\n✔ 没收程序比刑事程序更麻烦\n✔ 赔偿机制基本无法实现\n✔ 整个案子很可能要最高法院收尾","text_en":null,"edited":false,"reply_to":null,"reply_status":"none","has_attachment":false,"url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q245eb077291587d2daf2","reply_url":null,"reply_label":"","batch_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000068/pages/3","batch_canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000068/pages/3","notice":"这里汇集爆料革命参与者围绕郭文贵案的持续讨论，包括长期深度参与者及自述投入真金白银的投资者。他们分享亲历过程、资金投入与后续遭遇，并结合案卷展开追问、核对和观点交锋。这些来自事件内部的经验与细节，为理解事件经过和投资者处境提供了外部报道之外的重要视角。请结合具体发言判断其经历与依据，引用时保留发言者、时间和上下文。","content_type":"discussion_message","canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q245eb077291587d2daf2","markdown_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q245eb077291587d2daf2/markdown","json_url":"https://mubeitech.com/api/discussion-messages/q245eb077291587d2daf2","surrounding_messages":[{"id":"q104bf2703cf7e5b0164a","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-10T03:58:51.364Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q104bf2703cf7e5b0164a"},{"id":"q749509a7e0b907b415bd","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-10T03:59:09.935Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q749509a7e0b907b415bd"},{"id":"q54d35cda1a642295478f","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-10T04:00:10.601Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q54d35cda1a642295478f"},{"id":"q2b6bffbf726530382b7b","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-10T04:02:16.480Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q2b6bffbf726530382b7b"},{"id":"q3a3137f6e159234b08d4","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-10T04:03:21.098Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q3a3137f6e159234b08d4"},{"id":"q5f5bcc2b0affe07a1a82","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-10T04:03:43.594Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q5f5bcc2b0affe07a1a82"}],"parent_message":null}