{"id":"q274f3b4c819d802f84e9","batch_id":"batch-000068","seq":548,"speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-10T07:47:18.889Z","text":"(C) 给二巡传递信号\n\n你三个人的二巡 mandamus 本质上在说：\n\nSDNY 体系性违规\n\nSarah 上高法说：\n\n二巡体系性违规\n\n两个信号加在一起 → 二巡不会当空气。\n\n二巡的法官不会傻，他们最怕：\n\n高院点名纠错\n\n⸻\n\n(D) 给郭的律师团一个出口\n\n郭的律师最怕：\n\n在 trial 战场输得太惨，没台阶走\n\n但 Sarah 的路线提供了：\n\n✔ doctrinal（法律定义战）\n✔ procedural（程序战）\n✔ certiorari interest（高院兴趣点）\n✔ circuit split（分歧战）\n✔ federal question（联邦问题）\n\n这比在 SDNY 打 CVRA 简直是不同星球的打法。","text_en":null,"edited":false,"reply_to":null,"reply_status":"none","has_attachment":false,"url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q274f3b4c819d802f84e9","reply_url":null,"reply_label":"","batch_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000068/pages/3","batch_canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000068/pages/3","notice":"围绕郭文贵案的社区讨论与观点交锋。发言仅代表讨论者观点，不等同于法院认定。","content_type":"discussion_message","canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q274f3b4c819d802f84e9","markdown_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q274f3b4c819d802f84e9/markdown","json_url":"https://mubeitech.com/api/discussion-messages/q274f3b4c819d802f84e9","surrounding_messages":[{"id":"q2b5bbb82ce0a233be5c5","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-10T07:45:59.126Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q2b5bbb82ce0a233be5c5"},{"id":"q061f816852266d6da58f","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-10T07:46:30.156Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q061f816852266d6da58f"},{"id":"q998ac1a5a39534110467","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-10T07:46:50.608Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q998ac1a5a39534110467"},{"id":"q712ddfbb62443f31626f","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-10T07:49:10.385Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q712ddfbb62443f31626f"},{"id":"qae940d8dd479c9ffebed","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-10T07:49:31.484Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qae940d8dd479c9ffebed"},{"id":"q47a3bf4b22d5c2e074ea","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-10T07:50:04.246Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q47a3bf4b22d5c2e074ea"}],"parent_message":null}