{"id":"q29f1bd74966c2e07d2db","batch_id":"batch-000147","seq":165,"speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-19T22:09:05.757Z","text":"这里有一个很好的二巡反例帮助理解：United States v. Scott。二巡确实因为 abuse of discretion 撤销了 conviction 并发回 new trial，但那里的 abuse of discretion 发生在审判阶段的证据准入，而且二巡认定这个错误不是 harmless。\n\n这说明真正的分界线其实是：\n\nsentencing-stage abuse of discretion\n→ 通常打 sentence。\n\ntrial-stage abuse of discretion，而且影响 jury verdict\n→ 才可能打 conviction。\n\n所以如果夜神月坚持完全不进去碰 wire fraud / property / fraud theory，我会把这个打法的极限概括成一句：\n\n最好的结果是证明 Torres 在量刑形成过程中没有完成法律要求的 judicial judgment，从而让二巡 vacate sentence，必要时重做 forfeiture/money judgment，甚至极端情况下 reassignment；但单靠这个理论通常无法跨过 jury verdict，把九项 conviction 一起撤掉。\n\n反过来，如果他要的是：\n\nvacate all tainted orders，一路倒回 conviction。\n\n那就必须再找到一个trial-level hook。\n\n这个 hook 可以不是非得叫“wire fraud不成立”，但至少得是类似：\n\n错误的 property premise、错误的 jury instruction、错误证据被纳入/关键证据被排除、due process、政府使用法律上无效的 prosecution theory\n\n这种发生在 conviction 形成之前的错误。\n\n所以夜神月现在其实面临一个战略选择：\n\n保守路线：abuse of discretion。\n目标：sentence / forfeiture / money judgment / reassignment。\n\n进攻路线：abuse of discretion + conviction-level predicate error。\n目标才可能扩大到 individual counts，最终研究是否出现连锁 vacatur。\n\n如果只是问“只打滥用裁量权的天花板在哪里”，我会画在：\n\nvacate sentence + resentencing + 相关处罚重做 + 极端情况下换法官。\n\n再往上打定罪，就必须增加一个 trial/conviction-level error，否则法律上的因果链断了。","text_en":null,"edited":false,"reply_to":null,"reply_status":"none","has_attachment":false,"url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q29f1bd74966c2e07d2db","reply_url":null,"reply_label":"","batch_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000147","batch_canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000147","notice":"围绕郭文贵案的社区讨论与观点交锋。发言仅代表讨论者观点，不等同于法院认定。","content_type":"discussion_message","canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q29f1bd74966c2e07d2db","markdown_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q29f1bd74966c2e07d2db/markdown","json_url":"https://mubeitech.com/api/discussion-messages/q29f1bd74966c2e07d2db","surrounding_messages":[{"id":"q9f316888c91303975b83","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-19T22:03:33.225Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q9f316888c91303975b83"},{"id":"q724ebc7dc6a299df0dbc","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-19T22:08:20.611Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q724ebc7dc6a299df0dbc"},{"id":"qec14f2631782329930dd","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-19T22:08:43.156Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qec14f2631782329930dd"},{"id":"qc30d4fa528bd370ef4e7","speaker":"kir***","date":"2026-08-19T22:11:39.539Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qc30d4fa528bd370ef4e7"},{"id":"qe349d1fe60b065f16f8b","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-19T22:15:03.888Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qe349d1fe60b065f16f8b"}],"parent_message":null}