{"id":"q331ebb9240534397f5c3","batch_id":"batch-000090","seq":217,"speaker":"reb***","date":"2026-03-18T01:59:59.664Z","text":"核心结论\nGrant 的本质不是一个行政审批过程，而是一个政治协商过程。\nPool Memo 只是触发讨论的起点，真正决定命运的是：\n某位大法官是否在寻找这类问题的载体；\n案件事实是否足够干净（不会在 merits 阶段产生意外）；\n四票是否能在不损害各方战略利益的情况下形成。\n这也解释了为什么有些法律问题明显重要却等待十几年才被 Grant——不是没有人关注，而是一直没有出现一个同时满足\"问题重要、事实干净、时机合适\"三个条件的案件作为载体。\n以上解释了为何普通刑事案件很难被grant。","edited":false,"reply_to":null,"reply_status":"none","has_attachment":false,"url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q331ebb9240534397f5c3","reply_url":null,"reply_label":"","batch_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000090","batch_canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000090","notice":"围绕郭文贵案的社区讨论与观点交锋。发言仅代表讨论者观点，不等同于法院认定。","content_type":"discussion_message","canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q331ebb9240534397f5c3","markdown_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q331ebb9240534397f5c3/markdown","json_url":"https://mubeitech.com/api/discussion-messages/q331ebb9240534397f5c3","surrounding_messages":[{"id":"q73aafc62960118b63fa3","speaker":"kir***","date":"2026-03-18T01:35:32.992Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q73aafc62960118b63fa3"},{"id":"qffa2185130af71cf9a05","speaker":"joh***","date":"2026-03-18T01:36:49.052Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qffa2185130af71cf9a05"},{"id":"qbf10b9ed952ea653896b","speaker":"joh***","date":"2026-03-18T01:40:08.008Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qbf10b9ed952ea653896b"},{"id":"q3ef21dbdfd43622ac76e","speaker":"chu***","date":"2026-03-18T03:59:36.185Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q3ef21dbdfd43622ac76e"},{"id":"q11d2e4f51bb6c48388e0","speaker":"reb***","date":"2026-03-18T04:06:47.404Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q11d2e4f51bb6c48388e0"},{"id":"q64ab5bab781221c67f30","speaker":"joh***","date":"2026-03-18T04:19:00.054Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q64ab5bab781221c67f30"}],"parent_message":null}