{"id":"q33d078c9ad4f49114283","batch_id":"batch-000080","seq":776,"speaker":"kir***","date":"2026-02-21T00:38:33.470Z","text":"你再问问 这五个强制令 哪个对南区压力最大","text_en":null,"edited":false,"reply_to":"q8d31213de410a6418964","reply_status":"available","has_attachment":false,"url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q33d078c9ad4f49114283","reply_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q8d31213de410a6418964","reply_label":"查看被回复的发言（跨批次）","batch_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000080/pages/4","batch_canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000080/pages/4","notice":"围绕郭文贵案的社区讨论与观点交锋。发言仅代表讨论者观点，不等同于法院认定。","content_type":"discussion_message","canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q33d078c9ad4f49114283","markdown_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q33d078c9ad4f49114283/markdown","json_url":"https://mubeitech.com/api/discussion-messages/q33d078c9ad4f49114283","surrounding_messages":[{"id":"q7f04da3631406ac0cafb","speaker":"kir***","date":"2026-02-21T00:30:49.050Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q7f04da3631406ac0cafb"},{"id":"q432250943d2e3b4a65ec","speaker":"ton***","date":"2026-02-21T00:33:16.212Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q432250943d2e3b4a65ec"},{"id":"q8d31213de410a6418964","speaker":"ton***","date":"2026-02-21T00:33:32.580Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q8d31213de410a6418964"},{"id":"q777aaa7651927b427b9e","speaker":"kir***","date":"2026-02-21T00:38:44.716Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q777aaa7651927b427b9e"},{"id":"q75f346584a73bb8b72c7","speaker":"ton***","date":"2026-02-21T00:44:21.451Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q75f346584a73bb8b72c7"},{"id":"q779dda699fbdf340e6c6","speaker":"reb***","date":"2026-02-21T00:44:46.326Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q779dda699fbdf340e6c6"}],"parent_message":{"id":"q8d31213de410a6418964","speaker":"ton***","date":"2026-02-21T00:33:32.580Z","text":"加上 Bai 的 25-2726（虽然没被并入这四个，但也在第二巡回），现在第二巡回手上至少有五个来自不同请愿人的案子，全部指向同一个地区法院的同一个案件。\n\n4. 对量刑的实际影响\n\n• 直接阻止量刑？ 不太可能。Mandamus 通常不会自动中止（stay）下级法院程序\n• 但量刑法官必须考虑： Torres 法官知道上诉法院正在审查她处理受害人权利的方式。如果她在量刑中完全忽视这些请愿人提出的问题，等于给上诉留把柄\n• 量刑后的攻击面大大扩展： 如果第二巡回认定地区法院确实侵犯了CVRA权利，量刑可能面临 resentencing（重新量刑）\n\n5. 最大的悬念\n第二巡回会怎么做？三种可能：\n\n• 驳回 → 影响有限，但记录已经进去了\n• 要求地区法院回应 → 这就是实质性的压力，说明上诉法院认为有问题\n• 发出强制令 → 概率最低但影响最大，直接命令地区法院入卷并处理这些文件\n\n并案 order 的日期是 2月18日——距离量刑越近，这个并案审理的时间压力就越大。第二巡回的下一步动作值得密切关注。","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q8d31213de410a6418964"}}