{"id":"q3b647e5088f7f5463010","batch_id":"batch-000069","seq":590,"speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-15T12:22:02.589Z","text":"螺丝哥之前一年：\n\n✔ 三次Mandamus被拒\n→ 中共会认为是“闹+消耗+无结果”\n\n大部分政治系统不会重视\n\n但第四次发生了：\n\n立案\n\n立案意味着：\n\n✔ 美国司法承认这是“司法事件”\n✔ 二巡进入观察\n✔ 司法史进入可能\n✔ SCOTUS进入可能\n✔ 案件结局可能被重写\n\n这在中共眼里叫：\n\n失控\n\n失控 = 风险标签上升","text_en":null,"edited":false,"reply_to":null,"reply_status":"none","has_attachment":false,"url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q3b647e5088f7f5463010","reply_url":null,"reply_label":"","batch_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000069/pages/3","batch_canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000069/pages/3","notice":"围绕郭文贵案的社区讨论与观点交锋。发言仅代表讨论者观点，不等同于法院认定。","content_type":"discussion_message","canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q3b647e5088f7f5463010","markdown_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q3b647e5088f7f5463010/markdown","json_url":"https://mubeitech.com/api/discussion-messages/q3b647e5088f7f5463010","surrounding_messages":[{"id":"qbaaf0d7da25d90a91f6e","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-15T12:15:12.700Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qbaaf0d7da25d90a91f6e"},{"id":"qc306a53c0e926dffe1e6","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-15T12:19:20.208Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qc306a53c0e926dffe1e6"},{"id":"q25ca2c5ce0073782ef75","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-15T12:21:16.451Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q25ca2c5ce0073782ef75"},{"id":"q59f21da2b420433e744f","speaker":"him***","date":"2026-01-15T12:58:08.486Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q59f21da2b420433e744f"},{"id":"qbed1ae02571739e9b859","speaker":"him***","date":"2026-01-15T12:58:37.051Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qbed1ae02571739e9b859"},{"id":"q0d09c1a282f6e8f361e1","speaker":"him***","date":"2026-01-15T12:58:52.957Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q0d09c1a282f6e8f361e1"}],"parent_message":null}