{"id":"q3f259479fa51edcdd273","batch_id":"batch-000114","seq":524,"speaker":"beg***","date":"2026-05-31T03:30:17.732Z","text":"还有20个工作日， 这个案子629目前不会判的可能性大于50%。如果加上第三方在629前即将开始在二巡的行动，瑞恩说不会有量刑了 100%","edited":false,"reply_to":"qc3d9717292bb38ed60c2","reply_status":"available","has_attachment":false,"url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q3f259479fa51edcdd273","reply_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qc3d9717292bb38ed60c2","reply_label":"查看被回复的发言（跨批次）","batch_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000114","batch_canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000114","notice":"围绕郭文贵案的社区讨论与观点交锋。发言仅代表讨论者观点，不等同于法院认定。","content_type":"discussion_message","canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q3f259479fa51edcdd273","markdown_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q3f259479fa51edcdd273/markdown","json_url":"https://mubeitech.com/api/discussion-messages/q3f259479fa51edcdd273","surrounding_messages":[{"id":"qde0ecf76b4e6fc52fcc5","speaker":"sar***","date":"2026-05-31T01:35:24.972Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qde0ecf76b4e6fc52fcc5"},{"id":"q20e8aa3e91aafdac00e9","speaker":"kir***","date":"2026-05-31T01:37:10.693Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q20e8aa3e91aafdac00e9"},{"id":"qc1368c92f7edc21f593a","speaker":"beg***","date":"2026-05-31T03:26:21.169Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qc1368c92f7edc21f593a"},{"id":"qb32fa73471db8b6a0504","speaker":"sar***","date":"2026-05-31T03:30:59.799Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qb32fa73471db8b6a0504"},{"id":"qecd883a3152ec1becd9f","speaker":"beg***","date":"2026-05-31T03:33:08.989Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qecd883a3152ec1becd9f"},{"id":"qdc09c1e919cefd7405df","speaker":"beg***","date":"2026-05-31T03:35:39.429Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qdc09c1e919cefd7405df"}],"parent_message":{"id":"qc3d9717292bb38ed60c2","speaker":"wen***","date":"2026-05-31T01:33:50.335Z","text":"6月29日会怎样？","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qc3d9717292bb38ed60c2"}}