{"id":"q444d5e233bd39381836a","batch_id":"batch-000078","seq":506,"speaker":"joh***","date":"2026-02-16T01:38:55.253Z","text":"他本来就是两边下注啊","edited":false,"reply_to":"qe1cad78fa90c33a866c0","reply_status":"available","has_attachment":false,"url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q444d5e233bd39381836a","reply_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qe1cad78fa90c33a866c0","reply_label":"查看被回复的发言（跨批次）","batch_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000078","batch_canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000078","notice":"围绕郭文贵案的社区讨论与观点交锋。发言仅代表讨论者观点，不等同于法院认定。","content_type":"discussion_message","canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q444d5e233bd39381836a","markdown_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q444d5e233bd39381836a/markdown","json_url":"https://mubeitech.com/api/discussion-messages/q444d5e233bd39381836a","surrounding_messages":[{"id":"q45a3506aa549cb63d7e7","speaker":"xin***","date":"2026-02-16T01:32:11.439Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q45a3506aa549cb63d7e7"},{"id":"qe1cad78fa90c33a866c0","speaker":"gun***","date":"2026-02-16T01:35:47.100Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qe1cad78fa90c33a866c0"},{"id":"qe54e9ae9ed12efd08459","speaker":"kir***","date":"2026-02-16T01:38:24.179Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qe54e9ae9ed12efd08459"},{"id":"q81aee9b498cfb01fb0ba","speaker":"kir***","date":"2026-02-16T01:39:25.518Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q81aee9b498cfb01fb0ba"},{"id":"qd167b0662e0448c28a28","speaker":"gun***","date":"2026-02-16T01:41:33.353Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qd167b0662e0448c28a28"},{"id":"q3fdc0184be6d4d833315","speaker":"kir***","date":"2026-02-16T01:41:39.320Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q3fdc0184be6d4d833315"}],"parent_message":{"id":"qe1cad78fa90c33a866c0","speaker":"gun***","date":"2026-02-16T01:35:47.100Z","text":"对于马斯克，绝对不能用一般的思维看他，他在认知上根本没有阵营之分，他是非常不愿意见到中共这个可以利用的能量消失的，上海特斯拉是他整个火星战略的发动机。当中共熄火，要看中美平衡要打破，他的企业可能迎来巨大不可控风险的时候，他这么做是符合他的逻辑的","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qe1cad78fa90c33a866c0"}}