{"id":"q4783177572326c1ccb0c","batch_id":"batch-000119","seq":595,"speaker":"ton***","date":"2026-06-16T01:17:20.763Z","text":"大陪审团立案的标准 = probable cause(很低),不是「证明有罪」\n大陪审团(联邦一般 16–23 人)只判一件事:有没有「合理根据(probable cause)」相信犯罪发生了、且这几个人干的。\n这是法律里门槛最低的标准之一——远低于庭审的「排除合理怀疑」。\n表决:只要多数(联邦至少 12 人)认为有 probable cause,就出「true bill」= 起诉书(Doc 19 开头就写 \"The Grand Jury charges\")。\n「被说服了吗」——是的,但要看清这个程序有多「一边倒」\n大陪审团程序是单方的(ex parte):\n\n只有检方呈证据、传证人;\n没有辩方、没有交叉质询、没有法官主持;\n被告通常根本不在场、不知情。\n所以「被说服」= 只听检方一面之词、达到 probable cause 这个低门槛就够了。美国法界有句名言:好的检察官「能起诉一个火腿三明治(indict a ham sandwich)」——形容这个门槛之低、大陪审团几乎有求必应。\n\n这案具体:被什么说服\n大陪审团据政府 2020 年 5 月起的侦查材料(FBI 调查、银行/资金追踪、受害人信息、G 系列实体),认定有 probable cause 相信:郭、Je、王雁平共谋,通过 GTV/G-Club/Himalaya 等工具实体诈骗逾 10 亿、并洗钱 → 出 true bill → Doc 19(2023-03-29)。","text_en":null,"edited":false,"reply_to":null,"reply_status":"none","has_attachment":false,"url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q4783177572326c1ccb0c","reply_url":null,"reply_label":"","batch_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000119/pages/3","batch_canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000119/pages/3","notice":"这里汇集爆料革命参与者围绕郭文贵案的持续讨论，包括长期深度参与者及自述投入真金白银的投资者。他们分享亲历过程、资金投入与后续遭遇，并结合案卷展开追问、核对和观点交锋。这些来自事件内部的经验与细节，为理解事件经过和投资者处境提供了外部报道之外的重要视角。请结合具体发言判断其经历与依据，引用时保留发言者、时间和上下文。","content_type":"discussion_message","canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q4783177572326c1ccb0c","markdown_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q4783177572326c1ccb0c/markdown","json_url":"https://mubeitech.com/api/discussion-messages/q4783177572326c1ccb0c","surrounding_messages":[{"id":"qc67865607799527a693c","speaker":"reb***","date":"2026-06-16T01:13:23.973Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qc67865607799527a693c"},{"id":"q41b37e2fb44908ac9150","speaker":"chu***","date":"2026-06-16T01:13:55.225Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q41b37e2fb44908ac9150"},{"id":"q141e9b6c57ffec94b9df","speaker":"joh***","date":"2026-06-16T01:16:44.560Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q141e9b6c57ffec94b9df"},{"id":"qfcf5a540390edfc8b1bd","speaker":"ton***","date":"2026-06-16T01:17:55.563Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qfcf5a540390edfc8b1bd"},{"id":"q9f4e0a1c3ce162f44c6f","speaker":"reb***","date":"2026-06-16T01:18:19.095Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q9f4e0a1c3ce162f44c6f"},{"id":"qfbef63ee8705edc72a00","speaker":"ton***","date":"2026-06-16T01:19:15.259Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qfbef63ee8705edc72a00"}],"parent_message":null}