{"id":"q5904d204a5834ac06057","batch_id":"batch-000149","seq":167,"speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-21T18:57:20.643Z","text":"把870、5739、5746、5754放在一起，现在其实可以画成这样：\n\nGovernment forfeiture pool\n\n一边：\n\nPillsbury\n→ 接受forfeitability\n→ 换BFP保护\n→ 退出。\n\n另一边：\n\nLuc\n→ 不接受Government全部理论\n→ 但接受全球划界\n→ 退出指定forfeiture挑战\n→ 保留“刑事没收倒了回来争estate”。\n\n再一边：\n\n5746 / 5754第三方\n→ 不接受这个划界\n→ 继续保留独立产权/程序争议。\n\n所以当前状态其实不是“政府已经赢完了”，而是：\n\n政府正在把没收外围从一个多方诉讼战场，逐步转换成“已和解的人 + 仍反对的人”。\n\n这对以后看Final Forfeiture非常重要。\n\n因为最终即便出现Final Order，也必须区分：\n\n哪些ownership问题是法院审理后政府赢的；\n\n和：\n\n哪些其实是潜在挑战者通过settlement退出，所以根本没审到底。\n\n这两个历史事实完全不同。\n\n⸻\n\n所以现在我认为最值得盯8月25日的，已经不只是“法院批准不批准5739”，而是批准order怎么写。\n\n特别看有没有下面这些语言：\n\nno determination of ownership\nwithout prejudice to third-party rights\nno adjudication of alter ego / beneficial ownership\n§853(n) rights preserved\nsettlement binds only Trustee and Government\nnothing herein determines claims in Schedule 1\n\n如果Manning法官主动加这些限制，说明两份异议至少迫使法院意识到了5739的外溢风险。\n\n如果完全不加，甚至直接照Luc的Proposed Order——里面还准备写：\n\n所有没有撤回、放弃或和解的异议全部overruled\n\n那8月25日之后真正值得研究的反而会变成：\n\n**法院到底用了什么理由压掉这些第三方异议。** 5739.pdf","text_en":null,"edited":false,"reply_to":null,"reply_status":"none","has_attachment":false,"url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q5904d204a5834ac06057","reply_url":null,"reply_label":"","batch_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000149","batch_canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000149","notice":"围绕郭文贵案的社区讨论与观点交锋。发言仅代表讨论者观点，不等同于法院认定。","content_type":"discussion_message","canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q5904d204a5834ac06057","markdown_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q5904d204a5834ac06057/markdown","json_url":"https://mubeitech.com/api/discussion-messages/q5904d204a5834ac06057","surrounding_messages":[{"id":"qcf36d1c8cfd7adc0c516","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-21T18:55:56.971Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qcf36d1c8cfd7adc0c516"},{"id":"qea4c32fe4594bf3db9ef","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-21T18:56:20.529Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qea4c32fe4594bf3db9ef"},{"id":"qdd8f0498a73a1e8a2feb","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-21T18:56:39.001Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qdd8f0498a73a1e8a2feb"},{"id":"q605e9b65c4e23f5b32fa","speaker":"ntp***","date":"2026-08-21T19:11:26.357Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q605e9b65c4e23f5b32fa"},{"id":"q90d0fea82e873ea0b946","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-21T19:19:00.110Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q90d0fea82e873ea0b946"},{"id":"q09509c588364761fb9ae","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-21T19:19:37.047Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q09509c588364761fb9ae"}],"parent_message":null}