{"id":"q5e9543fc53ab398f69e5","batch_id":"batch-000126","seq":218,"speaker":"kir***","date":"2026-06-26T03:27:45.956Z","text":"二巡干预的几率已经上升到50%","text_en":null,"edited":false,"reply_to":"q38e7fa0c71a114034937","reply_status":"available","has_attachment":false,"url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q5e9543fc53ab398f69e5","reply_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q38e7fa0c71a114034937","reply_label":"查看被回复的发言（跨批次）","batch_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000126/pages/2","batch_canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000126/pages/2","notice":"围绕郭文贵案的社区讨论与观点交锋。发言仅代表讨论者观点，不等同于法院认定。","content_type":"discussion_message","canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q5e9543fc53ab398f69e5","markdown_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q5e9543fc53ab398f69e5/markdown","json_url":"https://mubeitech.com/api/discussion-messages/q5e9543fc53ab398f69e5","surrounding_messages":[{"id":"qa36c44aa7e8de44e994b","speaker":"may***","date":"2026-06-26T03:22:50.424Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qa36c44aa7e8de44e994b"},{"id":"qd1c56bcbd08e66485054","speaker":"joh***","date":"2026-06-26T03:23:06.255Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qd1c56bcbd08e66485054"},{"id":"q38e7fa0c71a114034937","speaker":"him***","date":"2026-06-26T03:27:24.987Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q38e7fa0c71a114034937"},{"id":"q9dbaac18c1b2dfcf2079","speaker":"him***","date":"2026-06-26T03:28:03.597Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q9dbaac18c1b2dfcf2079"},{"id":"q28aa6c8ba3ad6134c938","speaker":"kir***","date":"2026-06-26T03:31:25.080Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q28aa6c8ba3ad6134c938"},{"id":"qf11cf334f762bcd1fe15","speaker":"kir***","date":"2026-06-26T03:34:05.530Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qf11cf334f762bcd1fe15"}],"parent_message":{"id":"q38e7fa0c71a114034937","speaker":"him***","date":"2026-06-26T03:27:24.987Z","text":"我也觉得，二巡干预的概率不大，但是，南区记录不完整，程序不正义，估计最后这个案子还是会被推翻。","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q38e7fa0c71a114034937"}}