{"id":"q7ab86c3ad716b69691bc","batch_id":"batch-000139","seq":146,"speaker":"kir***","date":"2026-07-25T03:57:06.448Z","text":"能怪我？","text_en":null,"edited":false,"reply_to":"q9592b59c5ad745681014","reply_status":"available","has_attachment":false,"url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q7ab86c3ad716b69691bc","reply_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q9592b59c5ad745681014","reply_label":"查看被回复的发言（跨批次）","batch_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000139","batch_canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000139","notice":"围绕郭文贵案的社区讨论与观点交锋。发言仅代表讨论者观点，不等同于法院认定。","content_type":"discussion_message","canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q7ab86c3ad716b69691bc","markdown_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q7ab86c3ad716b69691bc/markdown","json_url":"https://mubeitech.com/api/discussion-messages/q7ab86c3ad716b69691bc","surrounding_messages":[{"id":"qadcb5a77ccf1f5134122","speaker":"joh***","date":"2026-07-25T03:45:45.694Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qadcb5a77ccf1f5134122"},{"id":"q9592b59c5ad745681014","speaker":"cin***","date":"2026-07-25T03:48:19.619Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q9592b59c5ad745681014"},{"id":"q40e1611c0e8ff46a6c56","speaker":"joh***","date":"2026-07-25T03:55:57.270Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q40e1611c0e8ff46a6c56"},{"id":"q312501f957bf8be2a35d","speaker":"kir***","date":"2026-07-25T03:58:01.062Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q312501f957bf8be2a35d"},{"id":"q06472b81ee68fbcc48f6","speaker":"joh***","date":"2026-07-25T03:59:54.645Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q06472b81ee68fbcc48f6"},{"id":"qdabf81e3163f91642c00","speaker":"joh***","date":"2026-07-25T04:06:14.487Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qdabf81e3163f91642c00"}],"parent_message":{"id":"q9592b59c5ad745681014","speaker":"cin***","date":"2026-07-25T03:48:19.619Z","text":"一定成谶 他只要做类似这种积极判断 势必走向相反 这是经过大量检验的 而且越重大越清晰 越好判断 彻底转折属于有点战略模糊 不排除上传个毫无意义的文件他会这么说  但好比案件上诉通过 打回重审这类事 放心不在范畴 \n而且根据这个 能引申一个预测： 等你们忘得差不多了 他一定会在某个时间点再说一次类似的话 比如年末 比如27年的某天 他会说 今年几月几月 彻底 重大改变等等  [删节：成员身份]","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q9592b59c5ad745681014"}}