{"id":"q84f37535313cccbb2122","batch_id":"batch-000122","seq":372,"speaker":"ton***","date":"2026-06-19T13:25:20.104Z","text":"如果 6月29日前没有一个明显的“清场 order”，把关键 pending issues 全部处理掉，那继续延期概率很大，约60%概率。\n如果她在量刑前几天密集出 order，把 Rule 33、律师、没收、受害人陈述、第三方 filings 都处理干净，那她就可能按期量刑，而且会重判。","edited":false,"reply_to":null,"reply_status":"none","has_attachment":false,"url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q84f37535313cccbb2122","reply_url":null,"reply_label":"","batch_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000122","batch_canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000122","notice":"围绕郭文贵案的社区讨论与观点交锋。发言仅代表讨论者观点，不等同于法院认定。","content_type":"discussion_message","canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q84f37535313cccbb2122","markdown_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q84f37535313cccbb2122/markdown","json_url":"https://mubeitech.com/api/discussion-messages/q84f37535313cccbb2122","surrounding_messages":[{"id":"qebb16c43cf6742fdb509","speaker":"joh***","date":"2026-06-19T13:12:45.832Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qebb16c43cf6742fdb509"},{"id":"q1994eeac858714b9b6c6","speaker":"ton***","date":"2026-06-19T13:18:57.891Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q1994eeac858714b9b6c6"},{"id":"qcc618443ef4e51e979ef","speaker":"beg***","date":"2026-06-19T13:23:36.200Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qcc618443ef4e51e979ef"},{"id":"q77832047684d24f53f4d","speaker":"beg***","date":"2026-06-19T13:26:35.467Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q77832047684d24f53f4d"},{"id":"q2f4f1bff2019e146b6f7","speaker":"joh***","date":"2026-06-19T13:28:49.204Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q2f4f1bff2019e146b6f7"},{"id":"q58542da4f3e71eb15633","speaker":"joh***","date":"2026-06-19T13:29:53.426Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q58542da4f3e71eb15633"}],"parent_message":null}