{"id":"q8650c749e419467c3045","batch_id":"batch-000149","seq":17,"speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-20T11:12:39.580Z","text":"我还看到一个对你们现在第三方/forfeiture线非常有意思的后续反差。\n\n2026年6月29日Torres在forfeiture判决里明确说，6512名Himalaya Exchange成员以及Hamilton等第三方反对自己被称为victim，不影响她先判断哪些财产属于犯罪所得；第三方权利以后走§853(n)。\n\n但回到2024审前，郭的Request 5正是在追：\n\nCCP是否针对所谓victims。\n\n所以现在出现一条可能的上诉链：\n\n郭早期要求检查所谓victim是否受到CCP影响\n→ 法院说当时premature\n→ 部分national-security信息后来进入CIPA黑箱\n→ jury没有看到Witness-2相关classified内容\n→ 定罪以后成千上万人又明确反对自己被定义成victim\n→ forfeiture法院仍把这些争议推给后续ancillary proceeding。\n\n这不自动证明判决错误。\n\n但是从record完整性角度，这条线是相当值得研究的。\n\n⸻\n\n所以我现在把CIPA“大秘密”的可能性重新排序：\n\n最值得怀疑的不是“政府藏着一份证明郭完全无罪的文件”。\n\n更现实、也更有法律价值的可能是：\n\nsealed record里存在关于美国政府对郭遭PRC targeting的认识、某些政府证人/政府来源的关系、以及2017–2018遣返郭网络或相关国家安全事件的信息；这些材料的一部分可能对郭解释intent、攻击证人可信度或证明alternative explanation有帮助，但最终没有完整进入jury。\n\n现在我认为接下来最该挖的三个文件已经变了：\n\nECF 358–360（Nickie Davis为什么要quash、郭到底向她要什么）；\n郭与政府导致withdraw subpoena的“agreement”到底留下了什么record；\nWitness-2在正式trial transcript里究竟是谁、实际作了什么证词。\n\n如果最后发现Davis subpoena主题和Witness-2/CIPA主题重合，那条线就会突然变得非常重要。\n\n目前我们还差这一环","text_en":null,"edited":false,"reply_to":null,"reply_status":"none","has_attachment":false,"url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q8650c749e419467c3045","reply_url":null,"reply_label":"","batch_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000149","batch_canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000149","notice":"围绕郭文贵案的社区讨论与观点交锋。发言仅代表讨论者观点，不等同于法院认定。","content_type":"discussion_message","canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q8650c749e419467c3045","markdown_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q8650c749e419467c3045/markdown","json_url":"https://mubeitech.com/api/discussion-messages/q8650c749e419467c3045","surrounding_messages":[{"id":"q71155936bc4367d7cd31","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-20T11:10:13.298Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q71155936bc4367d7cd31"},{"id":"q320d0d94acdaa1e5b7c2","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-20T11:11:34.571Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q320d0d94acdaa1e5b7c2"},{"id":"q0e53c9a9cf73f2b1865e","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-20T11:12:10.685Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q0e53c9a9cf73f2b1865e"},{"id":"qa5f7b624cb2bbf59fb6e","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-20T11:14:11.871Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qa5f7b624cb2bbf59fb6e"},{"id":"q18279d62b006ce191b84","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-20T11:14:52.731Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q18279d62b006ce191b84"},{"id":"qe69951db654ec65846a0","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-20T11:18:42.464Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qe69951db654ec65846a0"}],"parent_message":null}