{"id":"qad8829d31821647d4a14","batch_id":"batch-000069","seq":665,"speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-15T18:53:15.023Z","text":"第七段：二巡的策略（中文表达）\n\n英文说：\n\ndocket → 观察 → cluster → sentencing 等待 → 再决定\n\n中文解释就是：\n\n二巡现在在：\n\n“观察局势，而不是进入结局”\n\n二巡其实在等几个节点：\n\n① Sentencing（量刑）\n② §853资产听证\n③ Cluster（多Mandamus形成群体）\n④ DOJ表态\n⑤ 破产/SEC返还路径\n⑥ 是否溢出到SCOTUS\n\n换成一句更直白：\n\n二巡现在不是不动作，是“按美国司法节奏来动作”。\n\n⸻\n\n🔹第八段：司法政治部分（中文表达）\n\n英文表达的核心意思：\n\n二巡不想在Mandamus阶段与SDNY“正面冲突”\n\n中文化后就是：\n\n二巡不是怂，而是聪明\n在美国司法体系里，同级和上下级法院都会避免“内部战争”，特别是制度案件。\n\n这种案件最终往往交给：\n\nSCOTUS（最高法院）作为仲裁者","text_en":null,"edited":false,"reply_to":null,"reply_status":"none","has_attachment":false,"url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qad8829d31821647d4a14","reply_url":null,"reply_label":"","batch_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000069/pages/4","batch_canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000069/pages/4","notice":"围绕郭文贵案的社区讨论与观点交锋。发言仅代表讨论者观点，不等同于法院认定。","content_type":"discussion_message","canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qad8829d31821647d4a14","markdown_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qad8829d31821647d4a14/markdown","json_url":"https://mubeitech.com/api/discussion-messages/qad8829d31821647d4a14","surrounding_messages":[{"id":"q2c36c533f17f2461898a","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-15T18:52:25.172Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q2c36c533f17f2461898a"},{"id":"q94a8ba9f6f304477985b","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-15T18:52:41.194Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q94a8ba9f6f304477985b"},{"id":"q29556ade5d51f42e0d03","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-15T18:53:00.271Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q29556ade5d51f42e0d03"},{"id":"qef16f1fc45b92bd9271e","speaker":"him***","date":"2026-01-15T18:53:22.927Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qef16f1fc45b92bd9271e"},{"id":"qe9badbdce71d64d7839c","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-15T18:53:29.322Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qe9badbdce71d64d7839c"},{"id":"qfa784cf7b817394a6ca7","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-01-15T18:53:45.456Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qfa784cf7b817394a6ca7"}],"parent_message":null}