{"id":"qd12cd3c0e4c7d2c85e85","batch_id":"batch-000149","seq":10,"speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-20T11:07:43.262Z","text":"第一种，也是我最关注的：美国政府自己对“郭被PRC targeting”的情报评估。\n\n我们现在已经知道公开司法记录确认过Broidy等人秘密推动遣返郭，也知道美国政府后来处理过中国跨国镇压案件。假如CIA/FBI/State/NSC或其他机构曾经形成classified assessment，比如：\n\nPRC intelligence / MSS / MPS正在针对郭；\n有人试图渗透NFSC/GTV；\n有人试图制造指控或影响郭周围人员；\n美国政府掌握具体行动方式和参与者；\n\n那这类材料会直接碰到郭案里的intent、witness credibility、victim credibility和alternative explanation。\n\n而且这正好解释为什么郭方从一开始就坚持：不能只让检方自己挑选什么秘密材料给法官，必须让辩护律师私下告诉法官应该去找什么。\n\n⸻\n\n第二种：美国政府过去与郭本人之间的接触。\n\n这一点我现在觉得可能性不能忽视。\n\n因为ECF 111的措辞不是仅仅要求“PRC targeting reports”，而是说存在一些由本案本身置于争议中的classified issues。\n\n后来又出现：\n\n2018年8月26日interaction录音被删5分钟；\nWitness-2过去亲自告诉郭的事情涉及classified information；\n新律师2026年仍要求重新查看这批sealed材料。\n\n如果这些节点属于同一条线，那很可能涉及：\n\n郭过去和美国政府人员、情报人员、政府来源或与国家安全有关人物之间的接触。\n\n但这一点目前仍然是推论，公开记录还不足以告诉我们到底是谁。","text_en":null,"edited":false,"reply_to":null,"reply_status":"none","has_attachment":false,"url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qd12cd3c0e4c7d2c85e85","reply_url":null,"reply_label":"","batch_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000149","batch_canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000149","notice":"围绕郭文贵案的社区讨论与观点交锋。发言仅代表讨论者观点，不等同于法院认定。","content_type":"discussion_message","canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qd12cd3c0e4c7d2c85e85","markdown_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qd12cd3c0e4c7d2c85e85/markdown","json_url":"https://mubeitech.com/api/discussion-messages/qd12cd3c0e4c7d2c85e85","surrounding_messages":[{"id":"qa57ca8af83bd3fbf8286","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-20T11:03:19.310Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qa57ca8af83bd3fbf8286"},{"id":"q720d47a774f031d37dd8","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-20T11:04:11.000Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q720d47a774f031d37dd8"},{"id":"q72f30fc5589675f7f902","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-20T11:06:27.802Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q72f30fc5589675f7f902"},{"id":"qc1811ee79f1e78cc8032","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-20T11:08:07.984Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qc1811ee79f1e78cc8032"},{"id":"q3fc07535ad1437398eb0","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-20T11:08:28.329Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q3fc07535ad1437398eb0"},{"id":"q67ae2b083f57a80c41e9","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-20T11:09:45.883Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q67ae2b083f57a80c41e9"}],"parent_message":null}