{"id":"qdd8f0498a73a1e8a2feb","batch_id":"batch-000149","seq":166,"speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-21T18:56:39.001Z","text":"它们不仅在反对现有资产怎么分，也可能在反对一种未来机制：\n\n两个本来没有第三方产权的人，能不能通过协议中的先后顺序，先给未来争议资产贴上Estate/Forfeiture标签？\n\n当然，如果这种标签只约束Luc和Government内部，问题小很多。\n\n如果法院批准以后被理解成对第三方ownership具有任何预判效力，问题就大很多。\n\n⸻\n\n还有一个非常值得和26-1853连接的时间现象：\n\n政府此时一边知道郭已经提出直接上诉，一边在7月底集中解决外围没收争议。\n\n这本身不异常——案件判完以后清理forfeiture很正常。\n\n但5739明确把forfeiture以后被vacated/voided这种情况直接写进协议。 5739.pdf\n\n这意味着双方不是没有考虑上诉风险。\n\n他们明确设计成：\n\nforfeiture继续有效\n→ Government拿；\n\nforfeiture后来被撤销/作废\n→ Luc重新回来争estate。\n\n所以你可以理解成一种资产风险隔离结构：\n\n不管刑事没收未来怎么样，这些资产尽量不要重新变成“无人主张”或者当然回到郭本人手里。\n\n这可能是5739最深的经济意义。\n\n不是说他们在“阻止二巡”。\n\n而是：\n\n他们正在为二巡可能导致的不同结果，预先设计资产后续归宿。","text_en":null,"edited":false,"reply_to":null,"reply_status":"none","has_attachment":false,"url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qdd8f0498a73a1e8a2feb","reply_url":null,"reply_label":"","batch_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000149","batch_canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000149","notice":"围绕郭文贵案的社区讨论与观点交锋。发言仅代表讨论者观点，不等同于法院认定。","content_type":"discussion_message","canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qdd8f0498a73a1e8a2feb","markdown_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qdd8f0498a73a1e8a2feb/markdown","json_url":"https://mubeitech.com/api/discussion-messages/qdd8f0498a73a1e8a2feb","surrounding_messages":[{"id":"q481a7ba6acf59218d8d4","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-21T18:55:33.948Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q481a7ba6acf59218d8d4"},{"id":"qcf36d1c8cfd7adc0c516","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-21T18:55:56.971Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qcf36d1c8cfd7adc0c516"},{"id":"qea4c32fe4594bf3db9ef","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-21T18:56:20.529Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qea4c32fe4594bf3db9ef"},{"id":"q5904d204a5834ac06057","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-21T18:57:20.643Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q5904d204a5834ac06057"},{"id":"q605e9b65c4e23f5b32fa","speaker":"ntp***","date":"2026-08-21T19:11:26.357Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q605e9b65c4e23f5b32fa"},{"id":"q90d0fea82e873ea0b946","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-21T19:19:00.110Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q90d0fea82e873ea0b946"}],"parent_message":null}