{"id":"qe2a79d6c18787f75beeb","batch_id":"batch-000128","seq":209,"speaker":"kir***","date":"2026-06-29T18:43:28.253Z","text":"对","text_en":null,"edited":false,"reply_to":"q2a56876ad2a109ef1b49","reply_status":"available","has_attachment":false,"url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qe2a79d6c18787f75beeb","reply_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q2a56876ad2a109ef1b49","reply_label":"查看被回复的发言（跨批次）","batch_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000128/pages/2","batch_canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000128/pages/2","notice":"围绕郭文贵案的社区讨论与观点交锋。发言仅代表讨论者观点，不等同于法院认定。","content_type":"discussion_message","canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qe2a79d6c18787f75beeb","markdown_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qe2a79d6c18787f75beeb/markdown","json_url":"https://mubeitech.com/api/discussion-messages/qe2a79d6c18787f75beeb","surrounding_messages":[{"id":"q478f1cb5c95ebd7f4f57","speaker":"joh***","date":"2026-06-29T18:35:17.253Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q478f1cb5c95ebd7f4f57"},{"id":"q2a56876ad2a109ef1b49","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-06-29T18:42:44.691Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q2a56876ad2a109ef1b49"},{"id":"q97ed06ffa4b296470b16","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-06-29T18:42:49.152Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q97ed06ffa4b296470b16"},{"id":"qf058609f1c3077a61bd3","speaker":"joh***","date":"2026-06-29T18:46:07.457Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qf058609f1c3077a61bd3"},{"id":"q978d7fe80c524ba93633","speaker":"may***","date":"2026-06-29T18:46:07.786Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q978d7fe80c524ba93633"},{"id":"q9885f1698478ad4863af","speaker":"ntp***","date":"2026-06-29T18:49:57.058Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q9885f1698478ad4863af"}],"parent_message":{"id":"q2a56876ad2a109ef1b49","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-06-29T18:42:44.691Z","text":"托雷斯法官今天这份858号命令，看起来好像把没收金额从13亿降到了8.89亿，似乎是“部分接受了郭的反对意见”。但真正重要的不是这个数字，而是她同意了检方的核心做法——用没收（Forfeiture）彻底替代赔偿（Restitution）。\n这才是最狠的一招。\n郭案的没收体系，本质上是建立在王案的认罪和同意没收之上的。检方通过王案先把一大块资产锁定为“犯罪所得”，再用alter ego理论把这些资产和郭挂钩，从而在郭案里建立起这个庞大的没收池。\n如果王案的没收基础被打垮（比如第三方成功证明那些资产本来就不是王能代表没收的信托/投资者资金），那郭案今天这个858号命令就会变成一张废纸。\n托雷斯法官现在选择走没收 + remission（减免程序），而不是直接走restitution（退赔），其实就是想把主动权牢牢抓在政府手里。remission程序慢、 discretionary（随意性大），很多第三方最后可能拿不到钱，或者拿得很少。\n而真正的战场，其实不在今天这个量刑令本身，而在于后续的 ancillary proceedings（附属程序） 和对王案没收基础的攻击。\n如果第三方能在王案相关程序里，把“王到底有没有权利同意没收这些钱”这个根本问题打穿，那么郭案的整个没收大厦就会出现结构性松动。\n今天托雷斯把第三方的问题踢到量刑之后处理，看似是想快速结案，实际上也给了第三方一个继续战斗的窗口。","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q2a56876ad2a109ef1b49"}}