{"id":"qeac166674754e8df63cd","batch_id":"batch-000148","seq":193,"speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-20T10:49:28.526Z","text":"还有一个反常点值得注意。\n\n如果这些classified materials只是完全无关、纯粹不利郭的材料，通常辩方不会在定罪以后、换律师以后、进入sentencing阶段还专门花篇幅要求法院重新检查，并且要求security-cleared counsel亲自进入CIPA材料、再给法官做ex parte roadmap。\n\nECF 783甚至明确说，律师希望单独向法官解释“法院应该在classified materials里找什么”，因为他们有good-faith reason相信那些东西存在。\n\n所以我的判断是：\n\nCIPA这里很可能真藏着对郭有利、至少可以改变“动机/政治背景/政府如何看待郭”的材料。\n\n但它是不是能达到：\nBrady violation、政府污染、外国影响、甚至足以动摇定罪\n\n现在还不能下结论。\n\n目前最值得盯的其实是三个问题：\n\n1. 2018年8月26日meeting到底是谁和谁见面。\n2. Requests 5、6、19原始内容到底要求政府交什么。\n3. Witness-2究竟是谁，以及他过去告诉郭的classified information是什么性质。\n\n只要这三个里面能撬开一个，CIPA整条线就会清晰很多。\n\n而且这里对26-1853有现实意义：CIPA §4材料属于法官已经实际review过、密封保存的district-court record。即使郭本人没完整看到，二巡理论上可以审查这个sealed record。所以它不是“网上猜秘密”，而是已经存在于司法记录中的sealed appellate material。\n\n我现在最想继续挖的是 ECF 170、172、243。因为ECF 783已经告诉我们，Requests 5、6、19就是从那批2023 discovery motion来的。只要把170/172的公开版本找到，很可能就能反推出2018-08-26 meeting到底是什么主题","text_en":null,"edited":false,"reply_to":null,"reply_status":"none","has_attachment":false,"url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qeac166674754e8df63cd","reply_url":null,"reply_label":"","batch_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000148","batch_canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/batches/batch-000148","notice":"围绕郭文贵案的社区讨论与观点交锋。发言仅代表讨论者观点，不等同于法院认定。","content_type":"discussion_message","canonical_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qeac166674754e8df63cd","markdown_url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qeac166674754e8df63cd/markdown","json_url":"https://mubeitech.com/api/discussion-messages/qeac166674754e8df63cd","surrounding_messages":[{"id":"qd5d83b9309b8b0c29164","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-20T10:23:28.751Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qd5d83b9309b8b0c29164"},{"id":"qb5585c77fa2b6af7185a","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-20T10:47:21.767Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/qb5585c77fa2b6af7185a"},{"id":"q0bba3b5c47baf012f956","speaker":"roy***","date":"2026-08-20T10:48:44.507Z","url":"https://mubeitech.com/discussions/messages/q0bba3b5c47baf012f956"}],"parent_message":null}